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Record short covering. Funds don’t want to be be short grains - market comments
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Mr.Grain
Posted 5/13/2024 19:40 (#10738944)
Subject: Record short covering. Funds don’t want to be be short grains - market comments


Corn and wheat make new highs for the move.

Wheat traded to it's highest levels since last August, now up +$1.50 from the March lows.

Corn traded to it's highest levels since the first week or two in January. +50 cents off those February lows.

Soybeans are still down -30 cents from last week's high close of but still +75 cents off the April lows.

The big news has been the funds.

They were holding massive record shorts this year, but they have covered a record amount the past few weeks.

For the week that ended May 7th, it was the largest fund buying since July 2017 for the ag complex.

They covered a one week RECORD in soybeans. Covering +107k contracts in just 5 days.

They are now short just 40k contracts of beans.

For corn, they covered a massive +100k contracts. Not quiet a record, but close.

Since February, the funds have covered +200k contracts of corn.

They are still short 100k contracts, and corn has already rallied +50 cents. Which is great, because they have more room to cover.

If we were to see a week like this happen again, the funds would actually be long. After holding a record short not long ago.

Remember, the funds have never not got long at least one point during the year for corn.

Funds exiting their shorts in grains is not bearish.

Where we go from here will come down to weather, but if Big Money does not want to be short anymore there is a reason.

They see the potential for prices to go higher. They do not want that upside risk anymore.

We have seen a ton of farmer selling recently. If you look at the CFTC data, producers added 100k shorts while the funds bought 100k longs. So the funds are literally buying the farmer selling.

It is very rare for the funds to hold an even position. Which makes me think we have plenty of more buying ahead...

Read the rest of todays market update where we go over why I think we have more room to run and how to manage your risk in these markets

Read Here: https://txt.so/pbeNtX

(Chart Credit: GrainStats & Darrin Fessler)



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Attachments
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Attachments 952DE5BA-9824-4737-9FAD-580D6835DCDA (full).png (55KB - 60 downloads)
Attachments 81A134AF-B8D2-4CEF-9FB0-D1D96204098B (full).png (58KB - 55 downloads)
Attachments 1E79A43F-C9D9-4253-946C-7FCF846DA8E3 (full).png (61KB - 59 downloads)
Attachments A5CE78E0-DF25-4DB8-9EF4-DF4DEC93A991 (full).png (60KB - 57 downloads)
Attachments E358D41F-D2A6-4D86-89F6-003619D1BDE9 (full).jpeg (62KB - 41 downloads)
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