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| If you don't already, become familiar with this web site:
http://www.fas.usda.gov/
Slide down to the 'reports & forecasts'
While we all joke and occasionally question USDA, we do have the best information in the world. Napoleon once said 'armies move on their stomachs,' & one of the reasons we do have all of this somewhat accurate information is to monitor consumption for national defense reasons.
I am out of this grain and bean market for a few days and plan to remain out until I either see a shakeout or have a serious look at these reports due on Friday. Some markets do go straight up...this one is rich in my opinion...I've bought that ticket on the 'bus over the cliff' a couple of times in the past...I made some nice money in this deal...I want the bus tuned up & oil changed before I get back inside. Might miss a huge move...there is always another time & place.
I quickly summarized some world data. A lot of the excitement this year...our crops did not meet EXPECTATIONS in some parts of the world. When I slip on my analytical hat, it appears our usage is growing....possibly at a higher rate in the next few years due to conversion of some crops to energy.
World Data-1st column is production, column 2 is total supply, column 3 is ending stocks, column 4 is implied consumption. All in millions of metric tonnes. 07/08 are estimates as of December 12th.
Wheat
2001/02 582 788 201 587
2002/03 567 768 165 603
2003/04 555 721 132 589
2004/05 627 759 150 609
2005/06 622 772 148 624
2006/07 593 742 124 618
2007/08 602 727 110 617
Coarse Grains-corn, barley, g.sorghum, oats, millet
2001/02 892 1081 176 905
2002/03 872 1048 144 904
2003/04 913 1082 139 943
2004/05 1008 1147 177 970
2005/06 978 1155 164 991
2006/07 980 1144 135 1009
2007/08 1054 1189 133 1056
Rice
2001/02 398 548 137 411
2002/03 380 517 107 410
2003/04 391 502 86 416
2004/05 402 488 73 415
2005/06 418 492 77 415
2006/07 418 494 76 418
2007/08 420 496 72 424
Oil Seeds
2001/02 325 360 37 323
2002/03 329 366 43 323
2003/04 335 380 41 339
2004/05 380 421 52 369
2005/06 391 448 64 384
2006/07 406 471 70 401
2007/08 391 461 55 406
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Tiime to Review some Long Term Facts
