EC SD | w1891 - 2/9/2024 18:25
Just to give you the actual numbers your referencing
Year: Final Dec prior to harvest
23: 25. 49.5. (Argentina's 2012 drought on steroids)
22: 43.9. 49.5
21: 46.2. 50
20: 48.8. 53
19: 55.3. 55.5
18: 37.8. 57
17: 55. 57
16: 56.8. 57
15: 61.4. 55
14: 53.5. 54.5
Hope is thinking something out of the ordinary will happen, not normal weather. It rains in Argentina, so those who think it's not going to rain are the ones "hoping" for production loss.
Edit: Production estimates for Argentina were bumped in Jan to 50MMT.
23 -- 98% too high
22 -- 13% too high
21 -- 8% too high
20 -- 9% too high
19 -- a very tiny bit high
18 -- 51% too high
17 -- 4% too high
16 -- a very tiny bit high
I realize estimating soybean yield is pretty hard to do until harvest, but their model is out of calibration if it can't be too low in any of the last 8 years. My biggest beef is that they will not make adjustments as new data is known. So nice rains in vegetative phase and USDA raises the Jan forecast. Now January (reproductive stage) was super hot and dry, even worse than last year's "drought on steroids", yet USDA keeps the estimate the same as if this terrible crop weather had no effect.
Here is another article describing the Argentina weather situation:
https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/2023-24-argentina-soybeans-impact...
What would three weeks without rain and 104 to 108 temps, during pod fill, do to your yield? I doubt many farmers would say "no impact"...
Meanwhile the funds just continue shorting the markets because the USDA says the crop is made...
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Argentina Crop Commentary
