roarintiger1 - 2/24/2024 10:44
I highly doubt that they take ANY weather predictions into account when making their predictions. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/36651/39297_fds-13g-01.pdf...
Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields
Paul C. Westcott,
[email protected] Michael Jewison,
[email protected]
Abstract
Weather during the growing season is critical for corn and soybean yields. Adjusting
for weather in an analysis of historical U.S. corn and soybean yields is important for determining underlying trends and future yield expectations. Models for U.S. corn and soybean yields provide estimates of the effects of weather on yields for those crops, allowing an analysis of those effects to be used to derive weather-adjusted trend yields. The corn model also includes planting progress by the middle of May. The estimated models indicate that the responses of corn and soybean yields are asymmetric for varia- tions in precipitation in the summer—reductions in precipitation below its average
result in larger declines in yields than the gains in yields resulting from increases in precipitation of equal magnitudes above its average. The yield models are used to track effects of high temperatures and drought on U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2012 and to provide estimates for expected 2013 yields. Further, the models provide a framework for assessing changes in expected yields due to planting progress and weather developments.
Keywords: Corn yields, soybean yields, weather, drought, temperature, precipitation, asymmetric yield response, post-drought yield drag
Acknowledgments
This report is based on a paper and presentation given at the 2013 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. The authors thank Jerry Norton and Keith Menzie, USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board; Peter Riley, USDA, Farm Service Agency; Robert Johansson, USDA, Office of the Chief Economist; Joseph Cooper, USDA, Economic Research Service; and William Lapp, Advanced Economic Solutions for their many helpful comments and suggestions on this project and earlier drafts of this report. The authors also thank Susmita Pendurthi for editorial assistance and Wynnice Pointer-Napper for graphics.
El nino
