| Hilltop Husker - 2/26/2024 09:04
Every time someone picks a bottom it has to go down another 10 cents
True.
However across all grains, meal and Oil.. reports are the funds are short a record 3 billion bushels.. it’s been fun for them on the way down.. but there’s no way.. they can cover that much without there being a rally..
it would not surprise me if we don’t see a 5 handle in corn nor a 13 handle in soybeans.. no guarantees.. but the funds need Farmer capitulation in excess of demand.. in order to create short hedges.. right now.. farmer selling may not exceed the ethanol grind let alone feed demand etc..
look at the yield maps.. yes.. there are counties in Iowa and Illinois which had big crops.. also there are counties in Iowa who barely did 180 bu.. in Kansas we might not be as deficit as last year.. but we’re not flush either.. it will probably take the 2nd largest (behind last year) movement of shuttles to keep the feedlots going.. our elevators are probably less than a third full right now..
We had to cover needs starting in August.. “got any corn?” “Yal but it’s 18%”.. “bring it we’re out”.. we’ve shipped 90% of our corn.. all I have to do is sweep the floors.. and I’m not gonna bother doing that with a 3 handle.. make the high school kid do it in July.. or $5 corn.. which ever comes first.
the market will remain bumpy.. as the funds are about to find out because some of the bigger producers will not sell at these levels.. “got to 5 yet?” Nope.. okay.. I’ll wait. And they can do it.. must be nice having oil wells.. or wind turbine income.. dang.. now I got to pay taxes!
so it’s setup to reverse .. and it could reverse hard..
the wild card is South American selling.. yes.. that could bail out the funds.. but even there.. ???
hang on.. gonna be a ride.
just like the dollar plus rally in the spring of 14 the last time we had this..
Edited by JonSCKs 2/26/2024 10:13
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A little bir.d told me we are very very close to a rally
