|
SW Wisconsin | The story of the next generation leaving farming is the story of the last 80-100 years. Not saying it couldn't continue, but we're nearing the logical end of that trend. A lot depends on government policy.
The current goal in the US is cheap food, which they've achieved. Continuing that trend means a little more of the consolidation, automation, and chemical reliance we've seen over the last 100 years. This seems unlikely to me, I don't think there are a lot more gains to be made.
Another common goal in the west, less so in the US so far, is environmental and animal welfare focused farming. This one is scary, and will result in reduced yields to the point that we're likely to start dealing with food shortages. Covering farm ground with solar panels is part of this, as is mindlessly reducing the amount of animal agriculture. This is definitely the short-term trend, but personally I'm optimistic that people will see how stupid it is.
The third option is sustainability focused agriculture. Not in terms of just environmental sustainability, but in terms of actual sustainable ability to feed people. This will mean some reliance on automated and precision techniques, but also some return to smaller farms.
- Animal agriculture is a necessary part of an agricultural ecosystem, and large concentrations of animals mean hauling fed too far in and manure too far out. Optimal is probably in the range of 200-800 animal units depending on local geography.
- As an industry we'll never likely stray far from the goal of cheap food, which means profit margins will stay thin, so the only big money in farming will be tax evasion and money laundering.
- Family-scale farms are more likely to pass from one generation to the next: farming is a great way to live but a terrible way to make a living.
- Farms go out one farm at a time. If my 80 acre dairy was wiped off the face of the earth tomorrow, it would suck to be me. When a handful of ag mega corps go out people starve. A dispersed/ ablative model is more sustainable than a centralized one.
It's tempting to follow the latest trends out to their logical conclusions when predicting the future, but that's rarely correct. | |
|
What does the future of farming look like?
