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S Illinois | Large data point averaging. It takes a large number of acres being affected to move yield significantly. As more and more data points are added the variability declines. It’s much easier to predict national yield than individual state yield and much easier to predict state yields over individual farm yields. Taking this into account along with continuing increasing yield potential, a national yield can be estimated.
When national yield records are set, it’s not due to every field having their best yield ever. Rather it’s a large enough % having record yields with low % being significantly under APH. I haven’t ran the numbers lately but a few years ago, if every state matched their record yield, the national yield would have been more than 5 bu above the previous record. | |
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Rain makes grain IL
