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Thumb of Michigan | Ron, I consider my marketing ability as -well- average. A year ago today year (for 07) we only had 2 unknowns. What was going to be our yield, and what was going to be the price (pick a month and a commodity) on 1/6/08. Outside of those 2 small details, had everything sorted out.
I'm still not being very objective as to yields compared to other places. Soys were a little off our average, corn a whole bunch yield wise. In Nov, I was ornery enough that I wasn't going to plant ANY corn in 08. I've since penciled in (note penciled, not in ink) corn on 50% of our farm.
Had I known what wheat was going to do this summer, I'll guarantee you that I would have been 100% wheat for 07. Who'd have thunk?
I have all my expected inputs except herbs bought for 08. I have a pretty good handle on input costs is all I'm getting at. I have exactly the same idea as to what 08 crop will trade at a year from today as I had a year ago. That would be no clue. I feel a little better (for budgeting) using the known values as far as futures price goes. I'm looking at our 07 yields as a once every 10 year type deal, but I still use a bit lower numbers than average yields as far as forward pricing goes. Nice to be able to have a little bit left to sell if we get prices like now. And nice to only have a little left if things go to heck, too. | |
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Crop forecast spreadsheets
