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Thumb of Michigan | Ron, been thinking about a couple of things that muddy the water for my forecast on my farm. One is basis. My corn bid for 08 is a tad below normal, but not enough to worry about. Soys, on the other hand, carry a pretty fat basis. I'm not really sure why we're so far out from normal, although I realize that most everyone is for 08 crop soys. If I do pull the trigger on new sales with current known basis, it'll probably be via a HTA. Still trying to sort out a hedge on new crop (corn and soys), but I'm a bit nervous to do what I think I might do anyway. That really doesn't answer your question, but its something I'm tossing around in my pea brain. The other muddy item is the value of inputs already purchased. Especially N. If I can get retail value out of my current owned supply, I can pocket almost $100 per ton. Not a bad return for a purchase made in August. On one hand, it really looks tempting. I guess the other way to look at it is I lie to myself all the time about what to use for land values for ground we own. Current cash rents if I put an ad in the paper? 5% of what the purchase price was? 5% of current value if sold? I don't know.
I think you've posted over the years about concerns of asian rust. Pardon me if I'm wrong. Anyway, thats really not an issue here. Corn borer is a one in three or four year event, and I don't know that we've had as severe of problem as you folks in the I states have had even on a bad year for us. Anyway, I'm in awe of the production capabilities in the corn belt, and I have no doubt that corn yields are out pacing soy yields. Been enough people who's opinion I respect (yours is way up on my list for what thats worth) that have said as much on here. For us, our soy/corn ratio from a production side of things is I guess what I'd charactorize as normal. So, my assumptions from a budget standpoint will reflect as much.
Anyway, good luck with your budgets. Its a fun time to be farming, regardless of the crop. | |
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Crop forecast spreadsheets
