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Lapel, In | One way the Brazilians survived was by holding their grain until the day they needed to pay for something. You should do the same and not forward price anything if you think inflation and especially hyperinflation is just around the corner. In times like these it is quite possible to make money on borrowed funds, so retiring debt by selling grain is not always the smart thing to do. Another way to protect yourself is to use the same strategy you would use if you knew a depression was emminent by trying to become as self sufficent as you can be. Diversify your operation. Break out those old canning jars and fill them up or stock up on anything you can carry into the future, food or otherwise, from toilet paper to fruit trees. (just in case)
Right now I am not sure where I stand on the whole situation. Got to think and pray about it real hard this weekend. Am hearing there is a huge liqudation in our sow herds,chicken numbers and to a lesser degree in cattle numbers occuring as we type. What we can ascertain from this information are shortages of chicken in 3 months and pork in 6 months. And the consumer is going to call that inflation. Depending of how severe the shortages are, it will indeed be the second shoe to drop. Add to that the weak dollar will keep other countries still standing in line at the meat counters here. It's sad,but it won't cost them as much as it will the American housewife.Going to be a lot of volatility in all commodities for quite a while ,so try to hit the highs and hold off duringthe lows. It will look something like this on a chart.WWWWWWWWW. Just hope and pray the rope doesn't break. It will only stand so much jerking before it begins to fray and then break. And we don't wanna go there.
OBTW. grain trader, aka .pritch, aka. artifice ,et al is probably correct on corn. I just think he is a bit premature by a month or two.
If I had hog facilities setting empty , I would start buying gilts right now, but I don't anymore and am too old to start over in the hog business. Probably will buy a couple though ,just to be on the safe side.
Edited by msb 1/26/2008 12:30
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Inflation - planning for it
