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| First let me say I am one of those who dislikes Cargill with a passion. The reason is I caught them lying to me not once, but twice. I called them on it and they had to back up and change their story. This is not about just a bad test on a load of grain or something else, this is about a letter that came out of Minneapolis that was not factual and they had to change it because of what I knew.
That said, they are not offering the program for you to make money. They are doing it because they plan to gain from it or they would not put forth the effort. They could give a rats behind if it truly benefits you, they only want to make it just "good enough" to entice you to do it. ADM also has a program, but I don't know the details of it. Same for the Cargill "bin program" The ONLY reason they are doing anything is there is a benefit for them if they get you to go along. That's their choice, it's a free country and they are in business to make money, just realize when you sign on the dotted line that they are not doing this to help you out.
As for the program you posted about, it will give you an average price, but in todays market I think I'd want to have all my options open to get in or out at any time depending on what the market is doing. To they are taking something that is hard enough to figure out (grain marketing) and making it even more difficult or complicated.
I once had a grain marketing professor who told us that once we felt we had the market figured out and knew exactly what it was going to do next and were ready to make a move, either buy or sell on the board of trade, stop and think that if you buy or sell a contract in order for that to work there is someone on the other side of that transaction doing the exact opposite of you for reasons that he is just as sure of as you are and there is an excellent chance that he is more knowledgeable about the market and has a better idea of what might happen than you do.
One thing is for certain, hindsight is 20/20 you never need glasses on your a$$.
Good luck,
Ray | |
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multiple year price strategy
