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| I tried not to watch this thing too closely today, quiet markets, particularly this one spook me & I came in with the mindset this morning I would add on a setback & confident we would see that break in the next few days. Left late afternoon to run a couple errands & the evening session is a pleasant surprise.
Sometimes in markets we can get our attention switched momentarily and I think a common mindset developed all this week has been recession & coming in yesterday morning was ‘how far can this spring wheat run’ & is it a bubble about to break as a lot of bears were of the opinion all the grains would collapse when the March did trade; that reversal today speaks for itself. Let’s hope we get some follow through tonight & that we are not just running in the shorts we picked up the past two days.
Without a doubt, although I don’t think today’s stock market bounce was a real surprise, the extent of the rally in the Dow was impressive & it definitely helped some attitudes. I believe the underlying fact the Fed is printing money sends the message, as Dave mentioned yesterday, they fear deflation more than inflation. And in consideration of the state of housing, I believe they will continue printing for awhile.
Further, after reviewing the detailed export numbers & watching the developments in spring wheat unfold over the past month, there is a caution flag about being short any of these markets. I've sold corn twice in the past couple of weeks, it’s just not ready to unwind.
A lot of folks, in a hurry, just look at the export sales summary & I am suspicious, after a country by country review we may still have some sleepers in the wings requiring more beans & wheat in a supply situation leaving little to spare. However, this coming week could be light on exports so we may still have a skirmish ahead in the short run. Regardless, the market is moving the right way & an easier evaluation as today’s lows are a benchmark and would like to see them hold & hope they do as I am getting about as tired of this market as it is old. I like to have confidence in a market without being a fool about it & it is very difficult to maintain an aggressive bullish mindset when prices reach these lofty levels. A lot of risk. A year from now some of us will look back and wonder why we were so cautious, but the whole story will have unfolded by then.
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Impressive.
