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north central Oklahoma | Your gloom and doom statistics from post above;
1. look at the dollar after that jobs #... UP!!!!!!!!!! you cant have a better tell than that
2.-17k jobs
3. gasoline demand at 2 year lows
4.XOM record profits in a recession(how long do you honestly think that will stand with joe sixpack?
5.oil has been solely supported by 1, a super weak dollar 2. economic expansion. now seriously ask yourself does this still hold water?
This reminds me of that bull/bear page on DTN screen every day. There is an opposite plausibel bull explanation for every bear explanation of the days market calls.
my view as elementary is it is;
1&2: Increase in jobless claims due to winter term graduations in schools, and the layoff of additional Christmas seasonal help. These college numbers were previously listed as dependants, with no job prospects within the first 60 days of graduation,(tough market these days) they are listed as unempoyed, but still spending daddy's money.
3. Gasoline inventories at two year low because global warming has nearly half the U.S. covered with ice and/or snow, driving has slowed down the past 30 days.
4. Got me there, don't know what an XOM is, but neither does Joe Sixpack and he will continue in his lifestyle and just go get a job on the other strret corner.
5. Super weak dollar is perhaps supporting oil, but so is all the soccermoms driving around for no reason other than they are bored being at home.
I know the area that I live in may not be typical of the nation, actually the small rural areas are and have been quite depressed for a long time while the large cities and their bright lights seem to be running away with themselves. Each week when I head to the farm, I take my nephew out (and he - me occasionally) to dinner just to talk and catch up, usually on a Monday night. Holy cow, you wouldn't believe the crowd on a Monday night, not Friday of Saturday, a Monday night. Weekends are even longer waiting lines. Here in the town I live in, comfort food restaraunts are averywhere, and packed every night, ie. 20 minute wait lines. People are not yet worried about food price hikes. As long as your Joe sixpack has change in his pockets, he's gonna take his family somewhere. They are not worried even with all the doom and gloom news on MSM.
I know many of the local farmers receiving their "disaster" check being passed out for lost crops in past few years are taking them straight to Mother Deere. There is no place in our small towns to spend that much money, so they are trading up. And these checks are way more than the $600 + x$600 checks Uncle Sugar is getting ready to pass out to Joe sixpack. This country is too dynamic for any single sector to drag it all down the tubes.
Oil has perhaps been supported for various reasons, but oil also greases the skids of many people in this country, paying good wages/salaries allowing them to purchase that very oil/oil products in return.
I read an interesting article about Tyson the other day, referencing the higher grain costs associated with chicken feeding. They are likely going to have to increase the cost of poultry very soon to offset these higher input prices. Duh. And I don't blame them. I hope pork and beef do the same thing, but I don't think any one entity has the same strangle hold on an industry as does Tyson. Food is cheap in this country, too cheap. The same folks that pack these restaraunts every night also stop by the bigbox store and buy some more overpriced computer games for their spoiled kids. For what they spend that single night on entertainment, they could feed their family all week, even at the proposed higher meat prices.
Reader's Digest synopsis, I am not stocking the fallout shelter yet for Armageddon days. I think we are now playing on an elevated palteau, increased inputs and commodity prices. Ag banks are going to prosper as everyone's LOC's are now double what they were a few years ago for the same acres.
Edited by Cowboycorn 2/1/2008 11:32
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-17k jobs! LOL
