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| When I "plug in" the numbers in my spreadsheet, usually the 75% to 80% pay best over ten years. However, location will affect this quite a bit. If you farm in an area where there are few major yield variations (nice way of saying drought?), high levels don't frequently pay either.
I do agree 85% will pay more often, however it seldom pays more than 80 or 75% in the cases I look at.
GRIP, on the other hand, almost always pays more over time at the highest (90%) level, due in many cases (I states) to price decline, in addition to yield decline. Another reason GRIP frequently pays at high levels is the fact the the ECY (expected county yield used as the "county aph") is a trending yield, so is often higher than the true NASS ten year yield. This means GRIP is getting a yield "boost" over the true ten year county experience.
I really don't think 85% is a good choice in most cases, and U of IL farmdoc numbers agree, but that is just my opinion, and it it works for our operation, then it is the right tool for you.
Good luck, Rob | |
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Crop Insurance (What If?) Spread Sheet??
