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| Coup your idea about GRIP might work well this year. A couple of unusual dynamics could happen with beans this year (in my opinion). We may/should see a lot of bean acres. We also may/should/could see a lot of beans after wheat acres (double crop). Also, there may be many marginal acres planted to soybeans (less input risk, high price).
All of these circumstances, possibly coupled with lower harvest prices due to projected South America 09 crop/acre projections, could result in lower than average county yields (marginal ground/double crop/etc.) and lower fall prices. If these two things occur, the results could be the "perfect storm" for GRIP (lower yield, lower price).
In a lot of counties I've looked for GRIP, if we see a $10.36 fall price (limit down move for GRIP), every yield these counties have experienced in the past would pay. (see attached).
Now, back to insuring double crop. If you are planting beyond the final plant date, I believe you have the option not to insure (I need to double check, or maybe one of the other agents/adjusters/farmers with experience) can weigh in. Also, if you are in a county adjacent to a county with double crop insurance offers, you may submit a "written agreement" requesting MPCI coverage on your double crop soybeans, if you have a history of planting them in the same county.
Note: in the attached example, I used Polk County, IA., and applied a fall price of $10.36 for GRIP (minimum price), taking the RA price to $9.36. Results are based on past ten years NASS history for Polk County.
my opinions, Rob
Attachments
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 Polk IA SB low price GRIP-RA comparison.pdf (86KB - 140 downloads)
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Insurance and Double crop beans
