No, I didn't see, sorry. For me, an air carrier, regardless of country, that goes bankrupt is about as newsworthy as hearing that water is wet, water+dirt=mud, or something along those lines.

Every day the stock markets are open is a good day to short airlines - pick one, any one. Perhaps the only one that I wouldn't short is Southwest (LUV).

Air carriers are where careers and capital go to die.

While we can get all populist on the CEO's and C-level execs at these companies, an even cursory examination of the balance sheets, cash flows, etc show that the union pension and medical plans are the largest cause of the cash bleed that bled these companies dry when business conditions degraded and then the various accounting standards bodies required the companies to fully account for the pension liabilities.

Want to know why they piled in? Right here, from their 2008 Annual Report is the key thing I look for now in large companies with union workforces:

"Air Canada is one of the few remaining North American carriers with defined benefit pension plans.  Air Canada provides defined retirement benefits for all unionized and most management employees.  In 2008, Air Canada made cash contributions of $456 million under these plans, of which $189 million represented past service costs in accordance with Air Canada’s agreement with the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (“OSFI”).  "

A little while later on in the 2008 report:

"Pension    Funding    Obligations

Air Canada maintains several defined benefit pension plans.  As further explained in section 9.6 of this MD&A, Air Canada’s pension funding obligations are likely to rise significantly starting in the second half of 2009.  Based on preliminary estimates, the solvency deficit as at January 1, 2009 in the registered pension plans, which is used to determine funding requirements, is estimated to be approximately $3,200 million, a significant increase versus the $1,175 million determined as at January 1, 2008.  Based on pension funding legislation and regulations as at December 31, 2008, this solvency deficit would be funded over five years which would require an approximate $410 million increase to cash funding obligations for 2009.  "

Wages and benefits were their second largest operating expense after fuel. The balloon in pension funding obligations is going to kill them, near as I can see.

Defined benefit pensions should be given a heading on the Statement of Cash flow of "Sucking Chest Wound." Defined benefit pension plans are no longer sustainable in the current demographic environment, where life expectancies are improving rather rapidly, and any post-retirement medical benefits often have nearly unbounded costs to the corporation. AC is in perhaps one of the worst businesses in the world, with one of the worst business models: hub and spoke. To compound their error, they have not one but three hubs in Canada alone. What the heck? Do you Canadians get the shakes if you're more than three hours away from a Timmy's or something? C'mon. For a carrier the size of AC, you should have a east coast hub and a west coast hub. Further, you should consider cancelling half of your international flights. Cut the different models of aircraft down to three, at most: an international plane, a domestic long-haul plane and a regional short-hop plane. Call it done. They've got so many different pieces of equipment that their maint/parts costs is likely through the roof.

In short, they're going out of business because they're a poorly run company in a poor business sector with a poor business model. Triple suckage is a sure-fire way to go out of business.

As to Obama facing the wrath of organized labor: Let's play devil's advocate here. Let's say that Obama sticks it to the UAW and forces a radical downgrade of their contract and/or pension/medical bennies?

What are they going to do?

Vote Republican?

Let's say that the investors are stiffed. What are they going to do? Well, Turbotax Timmy's "Public/Private" deal for the banks would quickly become "Public/Public."

Let's not beat around the ideological bush here. In a debt deflation (which we're now in), cash rules. As in,  "He who has cash makes the rules." And since Timmah is running out of cash at a pretty good clip, and Grandpappy Wen is giving us the two-minute warning... ain't much going to happen without private capital. Screw private capital and it finds another home - probably off-shore, in non-dollar assets.

Union hacks don't have much in the way of assets with which they can extort, intimidate or bribe people. Sure, they have votes, and they have strikes. But they have votes in only specific geographical areas that are already DNC strongholds, which is why they're trying to ram the "card check" legislation through. In the US environment, where unions don't enjoy a whole lot of public relations upside, they can try strikes. They can try to pull out the old Woody Guthrie albumns and do the 1930's schtick again. And I'm sure they'll get very sympathetic coverage from the weasels in the media/press, who themselves are union hacks (and also being put out on the streets by being insulated from economic reality for the last 70 years).

The union can try their old tactics of intimidation, and here in the US, I would foresee a whole lot of union heads getting kicked in. Unions in Detroit have been living in a little bubble all their own for the last 30 years or so, and if they want to try the old tactics, I think they're going to find a very hostile reception.

They can try organizating once they get the 'Card Check' legislation passed, and I think then we're in for a real depression, not a mere debt deflation+"Great Recession" we're enjoying now. If the unions do pull the card check thing and start campaigns to unionize a bunch of large corporations, there will be large scale layoffs before companies get locked into large numbers of employees at elevated wages. As a result, I would fully expect there to be violence - and it will be the unions who will get the worse end of it.

So again, what are they going to do if Obama stiffs them? Vote GOP/Conservative? Yea, after a lifetime of socialist brainwashing, they're suddenly going to go all Milton Friedman on us? I dunno. Somehow, I'm just not convinced of that.