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ZCZFarmer
Posted 6/8/2023 22:01 (#10262393 - in reply to #10262194)
Subject: RE: Whats this map as opposed to the others in the OP? NT.


Minnesota
I was told in 21 I couldn’t compare to 12 cuz it wasn’t similar at all but for MN it was worse than 12. I tried explaining. Sometimes everyone just needs to take a deep breath and respect what some people say and their opinions rather than just bully them. It can be hard when you don’t live in the area but 12 was not a horrible year for MN. Wasn’t great but was substantially better than what many other states dealt with. I believe this is the closest year to 12 we have at this point. If you just look at the soil moisture, precip trends, and drought monitor, we are actually worse in every single category. To me this is the wake up call that all of us need to pay attention to. Coming into 12 we had good moisture and conditions. If you don’t believe that go read the WASDE report from 12 in May and June where they cited above trend line yields and record production due to excellent planting conditions, record acres, and crop conditions. I believe in June they even talked about good growing conditions. In July they had to make a complete 180 and took 20 BPA off the yield estimate. My point is that with how we are starting, it places an even higher need for rain and timely rains. 1 rain will not make this crop. I’m personally proceeding with the notion that the current risk is to the upside on price and as with anything we need to be able to accept and recognize when the market is changing. I think risk on could happen very quickly, when it’s dry it typically is hard to get a pattern change. Until that notion is proven wrong, I’ll maintain a dry bias.
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