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| Not trying to argue with you just laying out a scenario. If the Crop is large crop insurance would not have to pay out as much as you think. Because yield is tied to revenue and not everybody takes 85% hardly anyone takes 95%. Also, we can put the bottom in and rally in October to make not much of a payment. I’m not saying that we are going to have a record crop but I won’t rule out the possibility of it as a pattern shift is supposed to start June 15 in which an El Niño takes affect. If that plays out statistically you’re going to have above trend line yeilds, and we were planted in a good window. Also demand is falling. Just my thoughts. If it doesn’t rain though all bets are off. | |
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