|
|
| Is anyone selling 2025 corn?
If so why and how?
Questions I would ask before selling any of the 2025 include
Do you need to presell because you dont have on farm storage to hold?
What is your breakeven?
What costs do you have locked in?
What method are you going to use to sell or protect the 2025 sale? Futures, Options? HTA? Cash sale?
Have you considered basis?
Do you have a back up plan if you sell too soon? What if you use futures and sell too soon? Do you need a back up plan? What about if the market rallies and you use futures and have big margin calls?
What % are you going to sell? What increments? Is this inline with your typical grain marketing strategy?
My thoughts are that one should wait for a bounce in 2024 and if one believes we will stay in a bear market, simply over sell the 2024 or better yet over protect it
I know this is a little aggressive and this is by no means a recommendation. More so just looking for conversation.
|
|
| |
|
SW Indiana | Unless you're buying chemicals and fertilizer now, taking delivery and storing it for another year how would you figure a break even cost? Maybe I could guestimate a seed cost, the others are way too volatile.
No one that I'm aware of will price inputs out that far. I don't consider myself Superman though. |
|
| |
|
| I always get a kick out of a grain marketing consultant asking what my breakeven is as a point to be selling or not selling grain. This works for grain already harvested, when you have all the final numbers, but up till that point, a person can only have a semi educated guess. I don’t know about everyone else, but my insurance doesn’t guarantee profit on 9 out of 10 years |
|
| |
|
WC MN | Had an order hit Friday. I have payments. I have a rough idea what it is going to cost me per acre to plant a crop. I can make money at $4.93. I can not at $3.93. |
|
| |
|
southeast Minnesota | I have sold about 40bpa so far 4.96 average... i can make that work |
|
| |
|
| Only one question for you
Give us a price where you are advising sakes to happen? |
|
| |
|
| All of your questions are asking what you will do if the market goes up. Why wouldn't a good market adviser be concerned about if the market would go lower than the current Dec 25 price of $4.91?
Also why would you recommend over selling 24 and not selling 25? 2025 is currently 20 cents higher than 24. What happens if we have a short crop in 24 and a good crop coming in 25? It will be a big inverse and you will have priced at a lower price and now have lost a bunch of money with an inverse.
Edited by vulcan900 4/14/2024 09:11
|
|
| |
|
| i am relying on the `crop insurance put` and will not forward sell at any price. insurance companies rarely pay out (on price) at 85% im guaranteed mid-$800/acre revenue, that should keep lights on for my little operation into 2025. the way i see it, what conditions would cause corn to rally a buck? and would i be comfortable sticking my neck out to deliver those (contracted) bushels in that environment ie contract $5.30 corn amd theres a 1936 type drought or yellowstone eruption only to have to buy $8 corn to make good on a $5.30 contract. if it rallies, then somebody must know something that i dont. |
|
| |
|
Hooker Twp,Ne | I’m a little slooow. Still working on 23 crop |
|
| |
|
southeast nebraska | cause it is so easy to know what the whole world is gonna do in years ahead |
|
| |
|
Cherokee iowa | Me too. I’ll worry about 25 in 26 maybe 27 if cattle keep up. |
|
| |
|
southeast indiana | IALTO - 4/14/2024 08:35
Had an order hit Friday. I have payments. I have a rough idea what it is going to cost me per acre to plant a crop. I can make money at $4.93. I can not at $3.93.
this is my plan too. i think you and i are the only people on here with payments lol |
|
| |
|
| I think I have a working order at 5.00CZ5
Probably need to check on that tomorrow…
I’ll sleep just fine seeing $5 futures, always have always will. |
|
| |
|
EC IL | Got 40k hta on at 4.90.
My luck, the rocket is on the launch pad.
But 5 i can live with. 3.90, not so much
Edited by bobbyg 4/14/2024 12:20
|
|
| |
|
EC SoDak | Not yet, but we are entering the timeframe where it tends to make sense to start hedging a little bit of the next year’s crops (and this one, just the aggressiveness should be different). As gets floated around on here from time to time, the market doesn’t care what your breakevens are. Generally its timing that dictates when to price grain, doesn’t work every time, but roughly 80% of the time. |
|
| |
|
Columbia Basin, Ephrata, WA |
We have two years until 2025 crop needs to be moving out.
|
|
| |
|
Minnesota | Most guys ar still trickling 23 crop to town, 24 crop is at a year away from being marketed and 25 is just a dream. |
|
| |
|
EC SoDak | Hopefully that’s not how most handle setting the board price… |
|
| |
|
Minnesota | I was talking cash, as I don’t play the board game, also know quite a few others that do it the same way. |
|
| |
|
Minnesota | It might work for some I’ve just never been comfortable selling a crop I don’t have In the bin yet. |
|
| |
|
EC SoDak | Where in Minnesota are you roughly located? |
|
| |
|
NCKS | Sold 5k just to make sure I sold some $5 corn... |
|
| |
|
Minnesota | Southern mn.
Edited by plowboy29 4/14/2024 18:43
|
|
| |
|
Carbondale, KS |
| Is anyone selling 2025 corn? Yes
If so why and how?
Questions I would ask before selling any of the 2025 include
Do you need to presell because you dont have on farm storage to hold? Irrelevant
What is your breakeven? Doesn't matter
What costs do you have locked in? other than some land cost none as you never sell grain and buy inputs at the same time.
What method are you going to use to sell or protect the 2025 sale? Futures, Options? HTA? Cash sale? HTA
Have you considered basis?
Do you have a back up plan if you sell too soon? What if you use futures and sell too soon? Do you need a back up plan? What about if the market rallies and you use futures and have big margin calls? There is no selling too soon - grain is to be raised to be sold.
What % are you going to sell? What increments? Is this inline with your typical grain marketing strategy? Little more aggressive than normal
My thoughts are that one should wait for a bounce in 2024 and if one believes we will stay in a bear market, simply over sell the 2024 or better yet over protect it. Great a bounce, but from where????? your bounce may be way lower than today.
I know this is a little aggressive and this is by no means a recommendation. More so just looking for conversation. Could care less - may grain my rules. |
Edited by brad c 4/15/2024 07:09
|
|
| |
|
Cambridge, southwestern Nebraska | 2025 corn as in new crop I assume?
Until it gets over $5.00 I'm not interested. Maybe it is, I can't find a quote. I still wouldn't get to carried away at this point. A lot can happen between now and 18 months out. |
|
| |
|
Western Ohio | 2025 grain is being sold yes.
My view point is if you are selling grain this far in advance it needs to be done as and HTA contract so you have some flexibility when that grain is moved and where it is moved to.
This is best to be done when an input purchase is made at the same time as a grain sale is being made.
Many forms of fertilizer can be bought at a price when compared to $4.90 CBOT corn which is at or below the 5 year average ratio.
For those interested in simply managing risk buying inputs and selling out puts at the 5 year average ratio is a great place to start. No need to get carried away at todays input and output values for 2025 but it is a great way to start.
Phil A. |
|
| |
Anyone selling 2025 crop?
