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| Agree 100% on the weather aspect. The point being made is whether or not you farm shooting for top yileds based on reaching 90 or 100% of what you think is perfect weather to trigger that max yield you targeted for with your inputs.
Because if you don't get your perfect weather then you put a lot of inputs in with no return. And depending on your farming intensity then those peak bushels gained during perfect weather may have even been your most expensive bushels. But that all depends on your planning. Some swing for the fences every year, some understand those peak years happen 3 in 10 years. Some farm land where peak production can be obtained in most years so are not really swinging for the fences. So it depends.
Here is the question, if over production drives down prices (the explanation for current prices) and the argument is under producing will lower prices by claiming other producting areas in the world will fill the gap, then what is the answer.
So it's a problem to over produce and a problem to under produce is what experts will say. I don't put much credit in experts. But I do know i can go broke a lot quicker swinging for the fences every year betting on great weather making a max effort pay off. That is the weather in my area anyway. The businesses selling me all my product and me taking 100% of the risk will definitely do fine though. Maybe if they have to compete for my business because others aren't buying all the inputs they can either thus reducing volumes, then I maybe i see a price reduction on my inputs.
Edited by 69Cat 2/18/2024 11:45
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Seems many on here want to dust off the 70"s - 80's playbook
