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Northwest Iowa | I thought I'd point out some things that I have been watching. I'll start with corn; 1.) March first seasonal low is a strong seasonal expectation. The time window that I have seen is usually no earlier than Feb 10 and not much later than March 5. 2.) The monthly/weekly (nearby) corn charts shows us dropping over $4 in 2 years. There were rallies within that time frame but the overall trend has been lower. 3.) WD Gann said to watch for major lows when prices drop to 1/2 of the high. Pretty close. He also said to watch for highs when low prices are doubled- just an FYI. 4.) High volume of trades on the low day with a reversal. Heavy volume is critical. 5.) Slow stochastics pegged at very low levels. This indicates an oversold condition. 6.) Market news headlines were record fund short position. We'd talk about the "boat listing" to one side as everyone is on the same side. 7.) End of the quarter is coming soon. Trading fund managers want to take profit(TP) on trades to make their performance look good to clientele. 7.) There was a good post about moving averages earlier. They are starting to be breeched. Years ago the golden MA was the 40 day or 40 period (200 day on weekly). It still has some strong following. Traders would follow their trades with a stop loss order along that MA. Fundamentals are not real supportive at this time but what we are allowed to see is typically old news. On a note, there wasn't big demand for $7 corn but at $4, economics have changed.
Beans are similar but the March 1 lows are not a lock for them. It can happen in lockstep with corn but it is not as strong of a seasonal. There has been a loss of nearly $7 from the highs with a similar amount of time spent in the drop. The "rubber band" has been stretched pretty hard so a snap back can occur.
Some of our previous tech posters have been mostly on the sidelines but sure would love to see "blu", for one, back doing some posts( hint, hint).
Take care, folks! | |
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