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EC SD | Well, they say it is a global market so why no market response to "crop at risk" in the southern hemisphere?
Southern Africa has a corn disaster of historic proportions. (drought)
Argentina corn is already forecasted at 12% lower than expected, and the next forecast coming soon is expected to be lower again. (disease)
Brazil safrina corn is teetering with a large move of good rated corn moving into the poor rated category in the latest report. Soil moisture levels are around 1/2 of normal and their rainy season is coming to an end. (drought)
The markets are disconnected from the "crop risk" that is actually happening. USDA says - no worries we have this huge southern hemisphere crop "in the bin" because we have trend-lines and statistics which allow us to create the only "truth" on the crop size. Other countries' crop agencies apparently are inept and lack all ability to estimate...
So I am observing that "crop risk" is not affecting the market, because the market direction is currently controlled by deep-pocket firms that have no interest in the physical crop itself. If they can hold the narrative that we will be drowning in corn in 2024, and every year of the foreseeable future, then the price will stay under their control. This makes them huge profits on their short position. Believe me, the big money does not care about the truth as long as they can continue down this profitable path of lower prices... | |
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Israel and Markets
