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| Great day across the grains, as wheat extends it's 5-day rally to nearly +70 cents while corn found strength following yesterdays poor performance.
Soybeans initially got hammered hard, down double digits but rallied back to close down just -1 to -3 cents.
Export sales for corn this morning where impressive and part of the reason corn was higher. Wheat export sales were decent. Soybean export sales were terrible and the main reason we sold off early in the day.
Planting has been going great so far for most, however it does look like we could see a step back the next 5-6 days. Rain in April isn’t unusual, but we are suppose to get decent rain until around May 4th. So about another week.
This is going to cause some delays to planting for the next week. Which means crop progress will likely fall behind normal pace next week, but should quickly rebound in early May.
Let's say planting get's severely delayed.
Remember 2019?
No I do NOT expect this to happen, but if it did the market would not even care about this for another 3 weeks if history is any indication.
In 2019 we had extremely delayed planting, the worst we have seen and the market did not find a bottom until May 13th before rallying. (Chart below)
Even with these slight delays I imagine planting will pick right back up after this week and go along at a normal to above normal pace.
IF it does not and IF we do NOT have 50% of this corn crop planted by May 10th (forecasts show wet until May 4th) the market will start to care.
Again, I don’t see this happening but it is possible.
Either way, the funds are still heavily short..
For the past 2 months, our markets have chopped sideways to slightly higher. Especially in corn and wheat. (Charts below)
This means that the funds have been holding a position that is not making them money.
They are frustrated.
What do you do with a position when it isn’t making money?
You get rid of it.
We are also heading into a time frame associated with weather risk and a time where we typically price in weather premium and trade higher…
Read todays update where we go over everything you need to know in the grains and why the funds might be forced to cover
Read Here: https://txt.so/FUjBLs
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 C36FE114-1F1C-4EAB-A466-BE1B3D33E411 (full).png (136KB - 45 downloads)
CBE43864-7FAC-4922-A9CF-05F628828501 (full).jpeg (59KB - 28 downloads)
AA0B8F41-3F38-4EFF-AD78-767F3D015923 (full).jpeg (199KB - 23 downloads)
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Will funds be forced to cover? Market comments
