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Top is in the land market (look out down below)
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ks_cover_crop
Posted 2/27/2024 08:21 (#10641699 - in reply to #10641285)
Subject: RE: Top is in the land market (look out down below)


Kooiker - 2/26/2024 20:54

ks_cover_crop - 2/26/2024 19:11 In the last 3 years here twice as much land has sold than what was sold the 6 years prior. I'm guessing if prices start to slip the supply will dry up. What percentage of land sales in the last 15 years have been forced sales? Prices will drop, but bottom isn't falling out until forced sales increase supply.





Please define what qualifies as the "bottom falling out".

Does a 10% drop = bfo?
15%?
20%?
25%?
30%?


Or is it qualified by a set $ amount/acre?     

Does a $2000/acre drop = bfo?
$3000? 
$4000? 
$5000?   
$6000?




Rising prices inflate everyone's balance sheets.    Falling prices deflate balance sheets just the same.   Even if they are "no sales", that's still the price someone was willing to pay at that time.



A revert back to 2009 farmland prices is what I would consider the bottom falling out or a bubble bursting. A major pullback would be to revert back to 2019 prices here which would require a 40-50% drop in land values. The latter won't really hurt very many farmers balance sheet (unless they have continuously changed land values to leverage more, but that's a rare case imo) but the bottom falling out is going to make some bankers nervous.
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