| ks_cover_crop - 2/27/2024 08:21 A revert back to 2009 farmland prices is what I would consider the bottom falling out or a bubble bursting. A major pullback would be to revert back to 2019 prices here which would require a 40-50% drop in land values. The latter won't really hurt very many farmers balance sheet (unless they have continuously changed land values to leverage more, but that's a rare case imo) but the bottom falling out is going to make some bankers nervous.
Your local land prices have nearly doubled since 2019? "Here", land that sold for $14k-$15k in that time frame would bring $20-22k now.
I agree that a reversion back to 2009 prices would be a bottom falling out, that would probably be ~$6000-8000 for good quality land "here". If land prices get that low (I don't think that will happen), I'm not sure what catches the falling knife.
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Top is in the land market (look out down below)
