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Massive farmer selling on yesterdays rally.. 5 trucks.
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Clay SEIA
Posted 3/8/2024 09:56 (#10657032 - in reply to #10656934)
Subject: RE: Massive farmer selling on yesterdays rally.. 5 trucks.



cows-n-crops - 3/8/2024 09:03
Deere6 - 3/8/2024 07:50 Your memory is off a little, store and ignore worked in 20 and 21 but the last 2 years it did not. The only way you sold $7 corn for the 22 crop was before harvest, the only way you sold $6 corn for the 23 crop was before harvest (still could get back to 6 I guess). Question is will the pattern continue and the only way to sell $5 corn for 2024 is before harvest? Time will tell.
You are looking at it wrong. Store and sell the 21 crop for 7 and the 22 crop for 6. Now the 23 crop will wipe out those gains and sell for 4. Store the 24 crop until 25 and hope for 5 somewhere along the way.


You're also forgetting that 2020 new crop futures were $3.30 in the midst of the Wuhan Flu hysteria mid-late summer, towards the tail end of harvest I started spotting loads straight off the combine because we had prices we hadn't seen in ages and there was ZERO  carry to justify storing it, and July 2021 futures traded through $6.60 on April 29. 

Pretty easy to say how dumb the poor unsold farmer might be with hindsight.   Not trying to pick on any individuals here, just taking a look back and Agtalk sentiments for context.....

 



Edited by Clay SEIA 3/8/2024 10:00




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