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By: Shawn Stevens
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Salmonella: Surveying the science and sensationalism
(The views and opinions expressed in this blog are strictly those of the author.)
Only a few short days ago (12 to be exact), most Americans fully understood the potential for shell eggs to contain Salmonella. Americans also understood that raw eggs had to be handled and cooked properly to avoid illness. What a difference a few days can make.
Today, countless news anchors appear “shocked” to learn that raw eggs can carry Salmonella and are in a race to corner the most sensational angle. There’s an emerging outbreak (we’re told), the FDA is investigating (we’re reassured), and millions of eggs are being recalled (we’re relieved). In turn, experts disclaim the effectiveness of our food safety system, and (with near-perfect timing) FDA announces that the Food Safety Modernization Act is being considered for a full Senate vote.
What’s going on here? Is Salmonella Enteritidis (SE) really this hazardous? Is there really an emerging SE outbreak on a scale never witnessed before in the United States? And, when only 2.3 million of the shell eggs produced each year contain SE, why are we really recalling over half a billion?
These are all interesting questions. Over the last decade, there have been about 5,000 confirmed cases of SE each year (although there were nearly 7,000 cases both in 2005 and 2006). In turn, the CDC tells us that only about 85% of confirmed cases (or, about 3,500) are actually acquired in the United States. And, of these, only about 65% (or only about 2,300 cases total) are related in any way to the consumption of eggs – compared to the nearly 50 billion shell eggs we consume each year.
In turn, the source and scope of the current outbreak remains somewhat foggy. The specific (yet very generic) strain of SE involved in this outbreak is the most common in the CDC database. Historically, the strain has accounted for thousands of cases each year, and has routinely caused about 700 cases every spring (the period relevant here). The CDC is also warning that many of the 1,900 total cases reported since last May could ultimately prove to have no link to the outbreak or eggs. Finally, despite a widespread investigation, the strain of SE causing these illnesses has not yet been cultured from eggs.
So, what does this all mean? Well, the numbers suggest that most of the 2.3 million shell eggs known to contain SE each year can and will be safely prepared. In turn, we can also conclude that the risk of acquiring SE from the consumption of shell eggs is extremely low. To put things into perspective, you and I are ten times more likely to die in an auto accident this year than to culture positive for SE as a result of eating eggs (which averages about 1 in 120,000 annually).
So, why are we recalling 60,000,000 pounds of eggs for the first time in history due to SE concerns? I’ll let you answer that question for yourself. What I will say is that unless American consumers and regulators are reminded that all raw animal products have the potential to contain Salmonella, we will keep seeing more sensationalism, more legislation and more unexpected recalls of more products.
What a difference a few days can make.
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