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Little River, TX | Weather forecasting is more art than science. anything out beyond 24 to 36 hours gets into the SWAG category. Something to remember is it seldom rains in the middle of a drought, and rain is fairly likely in a wet spell.
These may be a stretch for you to interpolate. On their web site the numbers do line up with their respective dates. The 4 AM you time forecast will have 8 days showing, thu to thu, thing is the first day starts at 5 am M time and ends at 5 pm, while the second thu forecast is 5 pm to 5 am. Their day ends at roughly 5 pm for you or 2400 Z.
Northeast Nevada
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Elko 0 1 2 5 14 30 25
Ely 0 1 1 5 27 35 20
Eureka_NV 0 1 1 4 23 32 20
Las_Vegas/Henderson 0 1 3 5 23 24 12
Tonopah 0 1 2 3 26 26 15
When I first started with them I had the choice of interpolating between 3 sites or using their map. Using their map, if you know where your are you can follow the little colored lines and come close. Looked at NV and it's map shows a bunch of states but the county lines are on the map for NV. For Thursday the entire map shows <10% PoP with only the NW corner of CA having a little over 10%PoP.
The 6-10 & 8-14 day forecast is not worth anything if you do not have a local climitological record. My ranfall amounts go back 30 years but I only have 17 years of reasonably good CE data.
What the percentages mean is with a 20% PoP when conditions in the past were like they are now 20% of the time there was enough rain to measure, but again there 80% of the time it only threatened.
Then you have Unlikly or only a very few will reord any rain at all. with a <.10" u means on average the area will experiance <10" of rain. 90 or 95% will get nothing but the others may see an inch or two, but still the average for the entire area was .10". They probably use a 75 mile radious circle for the area. Then there is scattered and likely which have their own numbers.
If you are anything like New Mexico you have a lot of high base rain that evaporates before reaching the ground.
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Weather Forecasts-Driving me nuts
