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| The USA started the 22/23 marketing year with a total corn supply of 15.06 Billion Bu. vs starting the 23/24 marketing year with a total supply of 16.72 Billion Bu. of corn So we started with 1.7BB more corn at the 3rd qtr stocks we only have about 1bb of that extra left. Meaning that we have some where along the way used up 700 million bushels more than last year already. Now the bet by USDA is that for the whole marketing year we are only going to use 750mb extra demand, so after running demand 350mb a qtr. faster than last year we are going to drop that to only 25mb a qtr faster for the last 2 qtrs of the marketing year, need less to say I have my doubts.
Using a reasonable adjustment to demand would see USDA increasing total demand by 250mb now does that all happen in the next Supply and demand report maybe not but they also could say we will take the rate of use over last 6 months and extrapolate it over the last 6 months and cut ending stocks by 600mb ( less that a 5% chance) so there is the math.
like I have said it will not surprise me that 250mb comes of the ending stocks. | |
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After the dust settles what do we have to look forward to
