t rock - 2/22/2024 15:05

Differences between last time and this, is last time the conversation came way earlier than it is now, of dry lotting/$3200 dollar bred heifers and grinding one last calf out of anything that you could keep upright. This time Fats/ Culls and feeders are all lining up at strong to record prices for a sustained period of time. very few large operators are returning to fully stocked numbers as fast as last time, dairies have been culling steady with kill prices up and milk soft. This will be a longer sustained run of strong prices that will be limited in its strength by three main drivers ECONOMY/ IMPORTS/ INTEREST RATES, If there hadn't been an administration change we might have avoided all three of those drivers and would have avoided demand destruction indefinitely... my OP. Keep in mind last time the chatter on here was financing expansion, with cheap interest talk of buildings and loans for cattle was the buzz, and the kill rate of heifer's dropped WAY fast. Thing that has me the most apprehensive is the looming economic earthquake and its ability to end this bull run in it's tracks "BLACK SWAN" like we felt with covid would be a swift kick in the nut's. All that being said if everyone else can stay upright good times are ahead for the cowman and feeder for the next few years.... HERD EXPASION HAS NOT BEGAN YET
YEEEEHAAAA