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There will be bank failures caused by commercial real estate losses
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Spikes
Posted 3/9/2024 12:45 (#10658740 - in reply to #10658614)
Subject: RE: There will be bank failures caused by commercial real estate losses


To clarify, Silicon Valley Bank went down not just because of local mortgages, but their bond portfolio. Banks have been getting cash basically for free with artificially low-interest rates. In the case of SVB, they also bought long-term bonds and could not sell them as rates rise. This is the other part of the banking crisis which will affect the broader scope of banks.  This is what the London Crisis was all about. Institutions cannot invest in long-term debt when interest rates are rising. If they need to liquidate this type of debt, they will take a huge loss.

In the case of SVB, 57% of their assets were in investments compared to typically 25% or less, but of that 78% was in the Mortgae-Backed Securities where the typical hold of that would be 33% or less. So they were hit with the double-edge sword of mortgage & long-term bonds.

The SVB failure was what we saw in London. That is why Janet Yellen came out and proposed that the US Treasury should perhaps buy in the long-term debt and swap it with the short-term. Those banks who were looking at effectively free money, as always, lack qualified forecasting and they just follow the talking heads on TV to their grave.

Powell is NOT looking at the CPI and job numbers. He has said that rates will be going higher for some time to come. WAR is always the major inflationary driver and Biden is squandering money like there is no tomorrow taking orders from the Neocon who cares nothing about the economics, only about defeating Russia.

From here on out, the Banking Crisis will be impacted by these two factors. The small banks will be the worst for they lack expertise and just manage things based on the latest talk about trends. They are typically clueless. 

We have a very serious problem because rates will continue to move higher into 2024 with the major turn in the ECM. This Banking Crisis is TWO-FOLD - mortgage problems in the worst area, and then there is the continuing rising rates due to the Ukraine War and we have to start writing to our politicians and DEMAND an investigation into the Neocons NO

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