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| "From here on out, the Banking Crisis will be impacted by these two factors. The small banks will be the worst for they lack expertise and just manage things based on the latest talk about trends. They are typically clueless"
There are 4000 community banks in the US and about 130 regionals. So if small banks fail, keep that ratio in mind... out of 4000? Of course some are poorly run, that's statistics.
Most small banks (at least here) keep loans to 5 years or less before they reprice and keep bonds about the same. Over 50% of our loans have repriced since Jan 2023. By 2026 over 80% of all our bonds and loans from 2023 will reprice. We aren't that special and we aren't that smart. Thats why we stick the recipe that made this joint survive the 30s, 80s, S&L crisis, GFC, etc. This is pretty common for any of the 200+ community banks in IA. And I do know what happens if Fed Funds go to 9%, we do rate sensitivity analysis.
Rates can go up or down. Credit quality has always made me lose more sleep and will until I hang it up. | |
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There will be bank failures caused by commercial real estate losses
